Monday, May 22, 2006

Has Opec Peaked???

I came across this little article the other day, it seems that OPEC may have peaked last year, which would indicate a world peak.

MEES (Middle East Energy Specialists) says OPEC oil production wasdown by 460 thousand barrels in January. (Crude Only)www.mees.com/Energy_Tables/crude-oil.htm

Those losing production were:
Country...Thousand b/d Down or Up Thousand b/d
Iran.......3,650......... Down 240
Nigeria....2,310......... Down 110
UAE........2,400......... Down 100
Saudi .....9,450......... Down 30
Indonesia... 920......... Down 10
Iraq.......1,580......... Up 30

All others were unchanged.
These figures are very close to those of the EIA for January (CrudeOnly). The EIA had OPEC, crude only, down by 555 thousand barrels per day in January as compared to December.www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/3atab.html

The figures for Nigeria were largely caused by unrest in that country but the figures for Iran and even Saudi Arabia, I believe is simpledepletion. Indonesia has been in steep decline for years. There issome doubt about the UAE as 2005 is, so far, the year of theirhighest production. At any rate I believe OPEC has clearly peaked. They are producing one million barrels per day less than theyproduced in October 2004.

Ron Patterson

Apparently OPEC has dropped a further 300,000 barrels per day during the month of March. It looks like we are truely on the slippery downwards

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